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Folks around the Greater Rochester area could be seeing the rain event of their lifetime this weekend with the most dangerous potential for flash flooding coming on Sunday when the potential for rainfall rates could reach half an inch in just 15 minutes, a hydrologist said today,.
"We are facing an unusually high risk on Sunday," said Sarah Jamison, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Gray, Maine.
Jamison said that if the next three days were just one event there wouldn't be much to worry about, however she said the ground is already saturated and there isn't much left where the water can go.
Since June the average rainfall that has fallen in Strafford County is around eight-10 inches, compared with the average during this period of four and a half inches, 200 percent above normal.
She said places where roads have been stressed like Prospect Hill Road in West Lebanon, Maine, could see further erosion, which could be severe.
Jamison said that the chance for heavy rain will grow this afternoon and localized showers could drop one to two inches in a short time; some areas could easily see three inches., with flash flooding being a strong concern.
She said that on Saturday the storms will be less organized and the risk is limited.
But Sunday is the day to really look out for.
"Wet ground, an anomalously wet air mass and supporting dynamics could generate heavy rain like we don't see often," Jamison noted.
She said the dew points and humidity will not necessarily spike, but "it's the amount of water in the air" that will make the difference.
"I would characterize Sunday's rain as an unusually high risk," she sad. "Especially for people that are visiting the state that are unaware of the geography and the risk they may face. This is the culmination of a wet pattern coming to a peak, particularly on Sunday."
This story may be updated as additional reports come in
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